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Friday, July 5, 2013

Post NFP Assessment

Now that the dreaded data has been released, what happened?

Well for starters, the darn positioning took out EUR/USD long resulting
in a ()_*((&#(Q&!#$$ closeout.

To get back to where I was a few hours back, I need to make 4X what I
have now.

That's the bad news.

The good news is:

- it freed up a chunk of funds that I can freely trade without worrying
about margin. A new beginning, so to speak. A 4X return, or 400% is not
unheard of in Forex. I mean it stands to reason that if you can lose
400%, then you can make 400% too. It will probably take a but longer
than before though (yes I did 500% before) but hopefully these losses
have turned me into a more prudent trader.

- the numbers were mixed. We got a really good NFP number of 195K BUT we
also got a bad unemployment rate of 7.6. It's not exactly a stalemate
but it makes the QE taper outlook just as confusing as before.

- as I had mentioned before the NFP, it appeared as though the EUR might
reverse taking out those who shorted it. Well lo and behold it didn't drop as anticipated given the pre NFP movement. Because of the data above it dropped, but not that much, in fact I am sort of cheering it on to take out 1.28. So far we just hit 1.2805 and we are at 1.2840 as I write.

Of course its just one hour post NFP so it would be interesting
to see just what will happen before closing. Would still hope to see a drop through 1.28 so I can feel better about going long. But the market is so tame compared to this afternoon. Seems that many traders still have that 4th of July buzz but action may pickup again in a couple
of hours.

Thats about it for now. I need to go back and continue monitoring and
scalping when I can.

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