The recent releases of data about the US economy was at best, conflicting. However, the jobs numbers were off the mark by too much so there was underlying sentiment that tapering would either be postponed or it would be a small amount, kind of like a token taper if you will.
So the Feds announced no taper at 2 AM HK time, and AUD/USD took off like the shuttle while USD/JPY sank like a stone.
I was a bit nervous going into news time so I closed my AUD/USD positions and missed the chance to make quite a bit of money. I settled for a little bit since I had AUD/JPY positions anyway so I figured I'll make money there and wait for an Aussie pullback.
Anyway, with my new paradigm of trading, things are going much better. I have to remind myself time and again that the old rules no longer apply and the only way to survive this market is to play by the new rules.
Quite simply, you just have to stop intellectualizing the trades too much because its no longer responding to the old trading principles. Someday I might try write about my new paradigm of trading, but in the meantime, blogging will have to do.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Friday, September 6, 2013
NFP September 2013
For those readers wondering, I have not been taken out by the market.
On the contrary I was able to take the market by the horns and ride out
the volatility over the past weeks. More on this later.
In the meantime, among all the recent Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) releases
in recent history, this will come across as one of the most important.
This is because of its proximity to the much anticipated (or dreaded)
tapering. The NFP along with the employment rate are being watched
closely by no less than the FEDs which makes it even more capable of
inducing volatility. At this point the dollar is heavily bought so if
the NFP goes in a different direction there are likely to be big swings
in the market. The general consensus is that NFPs will print higher than
expected, but time and again, this has proven to be no guarantee of
actual data.
Regarding how I was able to ride out the market, here is what I learned.
You have to UNLEARN what you have known about the forex market over the
last couple of years. It is a totally new ball game and I realized just
how accurate my "new paradigm for forex " really was. Its not as
simplistic but suffice it to say that at this point, the market has
truly rewritten the rules.
I would be a liar if I said that I know how to handle the market now
because I don't. What I do know is how to survive and not be taken by
the manipulation of the market. Like I said, I don't know completely how
the market works, nor do I have the magic formula. But here's a piece of
advice that I think will go a long way in helping you cope with it.
Manipulation is a given today because of the amount of money wielded by
the bigger institutions. Remember though that their ability to
manipulate relies heavily on the predictability of the market to their
moves. If we want to throw them off the track, then lets be
unpredictable in our response. By doing so, we can render their
manipulative attempts impotent.
Anyway, its a little under 1 1/2 hours to NFP. Be careful out there.
On the contrary I was able to take the market by the horns and ride out
the volatility over the past weeks. More on this later.
In the meantime, among all the recent Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) releases
in recent history, this will come across as one of the most important.
This is because of its proximity to the much anticipated (or dreaded)
tapering. The NFP along with the employment rate are being watched
closely by no less than the FEDs which makes it even more capable of
inducing volatility. At this point the dollar is heavily bought so if
the NFP goes in a different direction there are likely to be big swings
in the market. The general consensus is that NFPs will print higher than
expected, but time and again, this has proven to be no guarantee of
actual data.
Regarding how I was able to ride out the market, here is what I learned.
You have to UNLEARN what you have known about the forex market over the
last couple of years. It is a totally new ball game and I realized just
how accurate my "new paradigm for forex " really was. Its not as
simplistic but suffice it to say that at this point, the market has
truly rewritten the rules.
I would be a liar if I said that I know how to handle the market now
because I don't. What I do know is how to survive and not be taken by
the manipulation of the market. Like I said, I don't know completely how
the market works, nor do I have the magic formula. But here's a piece of
advice that I think will go a long way in helping you cope with it.
Manipulation is a given today because of the amount of money wielded by
the bigger institutions. Remember though that their ability to
manipulate relies heavily on the predictability of the market to their
moves. If we want to throw them off the track, then lets be
unpredictable in our response. By doing so, we can render their
manipulative attempts impotent.
Anyway, its a little under 1 1/2 hours to NFP. Be careful out there.
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